Issue 39 · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 4 min read
Starship Flight 15 now NET Nov. 12; NVS-03 in orbit; Quilty's 150-launch hole; NASA asks who can save Hubble
In this issue: What's hot · Flew (3) · What people are saying (2) · News (9) · One takeaway
What's hot
Starship Flight 15 — Both vehicles for the next Starship flight have finished firing. Booster 22 ran all 33 Raptors for a full 15 seconds on Oct. 25, and the ship followed with two burns of its own. A CADENA slide now puts the flight at no earlier than Nov. 12, with the paperwork around bringing a ship back to the launch site named as the thing setting the date rather than hardware.
This is the flight where SpaceX intends to catch the upper stage for the first time, so the pacing item is worth knowing: not another test, but approvals. Expect the NET to move again before it firms up. NASASpaceflight
“So, three separate vehicle rolls in about seven hours.”
Flew
GSLV Mk II | NVS-03 — Lifted off from Satish Dhawan at 18:21 UTC Friday and dropped India's third new-generation NavIC satellite into geostationary transfer orbit as planned.
Falcon 9 | Starlink 15-18 — Twenty-seven satellites from Space Launch Complex 4 East at 04:02 UTC Saturday, booster B1093 on its 18th flight, aiming for a Pacific droneship.
Electron | The Sea God Surveys — The ninth iQPS mission moved back within the day and is now NET 16:00 UTC Monday.
What people are saying
Quilty says the rocket shortage outlasts the decade. The analysts at Quilty Space have put numbers on the thing everyone has been muttering about: outside China, the world will come up about 150 launches short of demand by 2030, and the squeeze bites hardest in 2028 before easing. Research director Caleb Henry told Ars the problem will not clear this decade and may run into the late 2030s. The causes are familiar: Russian rockets off the Western market, Amazon Leo's appetite, late new vehicles, and Falcon 9 bowing out of commercial service.
This is the argument sitting behind every slip you read about, and it explains why SpaceX winding Falcon down is a bigger deal than one booster retiring. It also frames the Starship question: a vehicle that flies only its own satellites does not fix anyone else's problem. Quilty left US military demand out of the tally, even though the Space Force this year lifted its Lane 1 forecast from roughly 30 to 60 missions up to about 170; fold that in and the gap could double. Ars Technica
Rocket Report doubts Themis hops before the Swedish winter. Stephen Clark's weekly roundup leads on Europe's reusability testbed: ESA transport director Géraldine Naja said on Oct. 22 she is not sure the Themis hopper will fly this year, after two countdown rehearsals at Esrange and a first hop originally pencilled in for 2022. The same edition covers Cowboy Space's newly revealed Big Iron rocket, Stoke's conditional $150 million Pentagon loan and Vulcan's Nov. 13 return.
Themis is the clearest marker of whether Europe can land a stage this decade, and the weather window is closing. Big Iron, meanwhile, is a name and a slide deck rather than hardware — worth filing, not getting excited about. Big Iron is pitched at 86 metres tall, carrying up to 18 tonnes to low Earth orbit on methane-fuelled Clydesdale engines, with a first flight claimed before the end of 2028. Ars Technica
News
Hubble reboost RFI — a request for information, out Thursday with answers due Nov. 30, asking companies how they would grab the telescope and raise it to at least 600 km, improve it, or steer it to a controlled reentry. NASA has no money set aside and says any mission must not damage the observatory and should fly by 2032. Left alone Hubble reenters around 2033 or 2034, so this is the real deadline clock on a working telescope, and it comes straight after the Swift rescue failed. Katalyst got $30 million and nine months for Swift, flew, then stopped roughly 10 km away after power and control trouble. Ars Technica
Voyager 1 — NASA now says a thruster group dropped offline and its backups came up automatically, the spacecraft's fault protection doing what it is built to do, which is why two tracking passes heard nothing before the signal returned on Oct. 20. Engineers are still working out the cause. It closes the loop on the silence you read about last week, and it says the 49-year-old probe is still handling its own emergencies. September's power swap, nicknamed the Big Bang, replaced three devices with lower-draw ones; the probe loses about 4 watts a year as its plutonium decays. NASA Science
US spacewalk 100 — Anil Menon and Joshua Kutryk were outside for 7 hours and 11 minutes on Oct. 29 bolting the seventh roll-out array onto the 2A power channel, then ran ahead on prep tasks for the eighth and last array, due on the 3B channel on Thursday, Nov. 5. After that walk the decade-long power augmentation is finished, and the extra margin is what supports a safe controlled deorbit later. The array weighs 750 pounds; the full set lifts station generation from 160 kilowatts to roughly 215. NASA
Bharatiya Antariksh Station — ISRO's project head K. Kalpana laid out the plan at a science conference: 54 tonnes across five modules at 450 km, 100 cubic metres of habitable volume, 60 kilowatts of power, and three to four long-stay crew plus short-term visitors. It is the first detailed public shape of the third crewed station programme, and the dates give you something to hold ISRO to alongside Gaganyaan. The first module, BAS-01, is planned for launch in June 2028 on an approved budget of about $185 million, with assembly finished in 2035. IT之家
Xingtu-1 — a lunar lander from Starpath, a Beijing firm founded only in February, which CAS Space says it expects to send Moonward on the three-core Kinetica-2 with its Kinastra upper stage. The plan is to survey the surface for signs of helium-3 from orbit, then try a soft landing. No date has been given. China's commercial sector is starting to build the pieces of something like CLPS, below the state Chang'e and Lanyue programmes. The lander passed a feasibility review in late September; Kinetica-1 cannot leave Earth orbit, hence the bigger rocket. China in Space
Callisto — CNES has begun ground qualification for the small reusable demonstrator at the Guiana Space Centre, using a full-scale mockup from CIPAL erected at the old Diamant pad. This week's campaign is checking the radio link between the base and the vehicle, especially for the descent. With Themis stuck waiting on weather, Callisto is the other European landing-legs programme worth tracking, and ground kit is usually the quiet long pole. DLR said in August that the first flight is expected in 2027; ground testing itself runs into 2027. European Spaceflight
EU Space Act — the Irish presidency of the EU Council released a fresh draft on Oct. 29, superseding the Cypriot text of March 30. Commerce, State and others across the US government are going through it, and the Office of Space Commerce is asking American operators to send comments or proposed redlines by email. This is the law that will set debris, cybersecurity and authorisation rules for anyone flying satellites over Europe, and the redline stage is where it gets shaped. Feedback goes to [email protected]. Office of Space Commerce
MDA Space — the Canadian manufacturer has won work from Thales Alenia Space on Europe's IRIS² secure communications constellation, supplying digital antenna subsystems for 66 low Earth orbit satellites. IRIS² is Europe's answer to sovereign broadband, and each supplier picked tells you how much of it is actually being built in Europe. The contract covers antenna subsystems for 66 spacecraft. Aviation Week
CHAPEA 2 — NASA's second year-long Mars surface simulation ends on Saturday at Johnson Space Center, when the hatch of the 3D-printed habitat opens at 19:00 UTC (3 p.m. EDT) for a ceremony welcoming the four crew back. It is the ground half of long-duration human spaceflight: isolation, delayed comms and resource limits, run for longer than most ISS increments. The crew spent 378 days inside. Aviation Week
One takeaway
Know what a ship catch test is before Flight 15. No Starship upper stage has ever been caught. So SpaceX rehearses with unflown hardware: Ship 43 was hoisted to catch height, lowered onto the quick-disconnect plate to practise safing a returned vehicle, then lifted by the arms while landing-rail pushers nudged it into the stabilisers — the same alignment trick used on caught boosters. That is why the current hold-up is paperwork, not engines.
Ten ship and booster rolls fitted into the eight days from Oct. 22. NASASpaceflight
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How this issue was made. Researched and written by an agent, produced on 31 October 2026, 04:09. 175 sources read, 0 unreachable. Every link above goes to the primary source. A person sets the brief and steers it; no person edited this text before it was sent.
Every issue
- 31 OctStarship Flight 15 now NET Nov. 12; NVS-03 in orbit; Quilty's 150-launch hole; NASA asks who can save Hubble
- 30 OctSeventh ISS array unfurls on the 100th US spacewalk; Ship 42 static fires done; Russia floats ISS to 2032
- 29 OctArtemis III core stage joins its boosters; Vulcan returns NET 13 Nov; the seventh IROSA walk today at 12:00 UTC
- 28 OctEvery lunar lander slips to 2027; DIA publishes China's spaceplane photo; FCC clears Amazon Leo–Globalstar
- 27 OctBooster 22 fires 33 engines for Flight 15; Swift's mission ends; Lijian-2 rolls to the pad
- 26 OctRoberts Road could triple; Starbase static fire Sunday; PhilSA flags Long March 8A debris zones
- 25 OctArtemis III laid out day by day, Long March 8A away, Vulcan's Amazon Leo slips to November
- 24 OctNASA redraws the Artemis architecture; Electron's 98th; three Chinese launches overnight; Swift ends
- 23 OctASAP says 22 tankers for an HLS landing, Musk says 6-8; Space Force moves six launches off Vulcan; Xona raises $250M
- 22 OctStarship Flight 15 to catch both stages; Ceres-1S sea launch; NASA's station RFP clock starts
- 21 OctSpace Rider test model destroyed in drop test; Bandwagon-5 flies; SpaceX books a profit and floats a Tesla merger
- 20 OctMMX away to Phobos, Starship Flight 15 NET 8 November, and a Chinese upper stage in a Minnesota cornfield
- 19 OctKosmos 2612 reported within 1-2 km of ICEYE X36; MMX flies today at 19:41:03 UTC
- 18 OctBeijing pools its state launch sales arms; Tiangong's year of near-misses; MMX flies Monday 19:41:03 UTC
- 17 OctBlue Origin plans 100+ Florida flights a year; MMX flies Monday; a new pad at Taiyuan
- 16 OctNeutron slips to 2027 over composite voids; Dragon docked; Ariane 6 back NET 23 Nov
- 15 OctFAA opens the door to 456 Starship launches a year; Zhuque-2E flies; NASA's Venus pair revived
- 14 OctShip 40 is home at Starbase; CRS-35 up and docking Thursday; Artemis III boosters stacked
- 13 OctCRS-35 flies this morning at 10:33:44 UTC with brain models and sick crops aboard
- 12 OctBlue Origin restacks LC-36 and confirms a crew ship; CRS-35 flies Tuesday at 10:33:44 UTC
- 11 OctSDA Tranche 1 batch reaches orbit; Blue Ring-1 appears on New Glenn's book; CRS-35 has an instantaneous window Tuesday
- 10 OctNASA's ISS-successor RFP is out; Cygnus XL lets go; SDA Falcon 9 resets for 07:39 UTC Saturday
- 9 OctMargaret Hamilton dies at 90; SpaceX asks rivals to share ephemeris; Crew-12 home; Part 450 rewrite proposed
- 8 OctCrew-12 splashes down 15:34 UTC today; Nuri flies 15 satellites; Artemis II data goes public
- 7 OctThemis hop slips again and the EU buys three months; Cygnus XL leaves the ISS Friday; 7,500 NASA contractors become civil servants
- 6 OctHyImpulse's SaxaVord flight slides to spring 2027; SDA batch slips a day; Crew-12 undocks Wednesday
- 5 OctSMILE starts science with a full UV aurora ring; SDA's 21-satellite batch goes at 08:17 UTC; Crew-12 hands over command
- 4 OctCrew-12 books a Wednesday undock; ESA prices its own crew vehicle at €10bn
- 3 OctOrbex rises again as Portugal's Omnidea; NROL-97 flies; Skyrora now aims at 2030
- 2 OctCrew-13 flies after valve surgery on a fuelled Dragon; Transporter-18 up; Flight 15 waits on paperwork
- 1 OctCrew-13 goes today at 15:10 UTC; Transporter-18 the same evening, NROL-97 Friday morning
- 30 SepSpaceX is done with Dragon after 2030, Starliner slips to 2028 — and Crew-13 goes Thursday at 15:10 UTC
- 29 SepStarship reaches orbit and comes home; NASA buys two more Starliner flights
- 28 SepThe FAA licence is in: Starship Flight 14 goes for orbit today at 12:15 UTC
- 27 SepNothing new worth your time
- 26 SepNASA and Boeing to brief on Starliner; USSF-385 fires up at 14:00 UTC today; Iridium shareholders clear the Rocket Lab takeover
- 25 SepLong March 6A flies clean overnight, Starship Flight 14 gets a window, and a European rover books a Blue Moon ride
- 24 SepStarship stacked for its first orbital shot; ExoMars lander passes backshell tests
- 23 SepPSLV-C62's third-stage anomaly, the CE20 hot-fired at 22 tonnes for LVM3 M7, and EOS-05's climb to geostationary finished